Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,096) and Celta Vigo (2,119).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Celta Vigo have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rayo Vallecano win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Celta Vigo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Celta Vigo 0-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 11, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 12th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.