Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rayo Vallecano wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,037) and Celta Vigo (2,030).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 16Hugo González
- 19W. Swedberg
- 8Miguel Román
- 6I. Moriba
- 17Javi Rueda
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 18Yoel Lago
- 15Álvaro Núñez
- 21S. Cáceres
- 13I. Radu
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Celta Vigo have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rayo Vallecano wins, 3 draws, 1 Celta Vigo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Celta Vigo 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Celta Vigo 0-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 11, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 12th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Celta Vigo sit 14th (7 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.