Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 6Kick-off on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Borough Briggs, Elgin
The Footlab model makes Elgin City the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Aberdeen U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21?
Elgin City starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,567 vs 1,403).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elgin City have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Aberdeen U21 have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spartans(away) | 3-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(home) | 4-1 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Edinburgh City(away) | 5-0 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(away) | 3-0 | Challenge Cup |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Keith(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Turriff United(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Invergordon(away) | 9-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Fraserburgh(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Elgin City win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Aberdeen U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Elgin City 2-2 Aberdeen U21 | Challenge Cup |
Last archived meeting: Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21 on Oct 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Elgin City score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aberdeen U21 score 1.7 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin City | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Aberdeen U21 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21?
- The Footlab model makes Elgin City the favourite at 69%, against 17% for a draw and 14% for Aberdeen U21.
- Where and when is Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21 played?
- Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21 is played on October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Borough Briggs, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 13, 2026CowdenbeathvsCeltic II
- Oct 13, 2026Airdrie UnitedvsHearts U21
- Oct 13, 2026Stirling AlbionvsHibernian U21
- Oct 13, 2026Banks O' DeevsMotherwell U21
- Oct 13, 2026Annan AthleticvsAlloa Athletic
- Oct 13, 2026Berwick RangersvsQueen of the South
- Oct 13, 2026Ross CountyvsForfar Athletic