Where and when is Erith Town vs Cray Valley PM played?

Erith Town vs Cray Valley PM is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Bayliss Avenue, in the FA Trophy.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Erith Town vs Cray Valley PM: prediction and stats

FA Trophy1st Round QualifyingKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Bayliss Avenue, London

Erith Town

Cray Valley PM

The Footlab model makes Cray Valley PM the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Erith Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Erith Town vs Cray Valley PM?

A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Erith Town (1,628) and Cray Valley PM (1,713).

Erith Town win37 %

Draw26 %

Cray Valley PM win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Erith Town have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Cray Valley PM have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Erith Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Apr 25, 2026	Broadbridge Heath(home)	1-0	Non League Div One - Isthmian South East
Apr 18, 2026	Margate(away)	1-3	Non League Div One - Isthmian South East
Apr 11, 2026	Merstham(away)	2-1	Non League Div One - Isthmian South East
Apr 6, 2026	Beckenham Town(home)	1-2	Non League Div One - Isthmian South East
Apr 4, 2026	Herne Bay(away)	3-2	Non League Div One - Isthmian South East

Cray Valley PM
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jul 28, 2026	Ebbsfleet United(home)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Apr 25, 2026	Dartford(away)	3-2	Non League Premier - Isthmian
Apr 18, 2026	Folkestone Invicta(home)	1-1	Non League Premier - Isthmian
Apr 11, 2026	Hashtag United(away)	1-1	Non League Premier - Isthmian
Apr 6, 2026	Cray Wanderers(home)	1-2	Non League Premier - Isthmian

How many goals should we expect?

Erith Town score 2.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cray Valley PM score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Erith Town	2.1	2.0	3	11/15	12/15
Cray Valley PM	1.3	1.9	3	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Erith Town vs Cray Valley PM?: The Footlab model makes Cray Valley PM the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Erith Town.
Where and when is Erith Town vs Cray Valley PM played?: Erith Town vs Cray Valley PM is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Bayliss Avenue, in the FA Trophy.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.