Ethiopia vs Mozambique: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Addis Ababa Stadium, Addis Abeba
The Footlab model makes Ethiopia the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Mozambique. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Ethiopia (1,399) and Mozambique (1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ethiopia have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Mozambique have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(away) | 3-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Indonesia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Oman(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 0-4 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Cameroon(home) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Gabon(away) | 3-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Ethiopia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Mozambique win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique | African Nations Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ethiopia vs Mozambique on Jan 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Ethiopia score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Mozambique score 0.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Mozambique | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ethiopia sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Mozambique sit 2nd (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mozambique | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
- The Footlab model makes Ethiopia the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Mozambique.
- Where and when is Ethiopia vs Mozambique played?
- Ethiopia vs Mozambique is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Addis Ababa Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.