Ethiopia vs Mozambique: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Addis Ababa Stadium, Addis Abeba
The Footlab AI model makes Mozambique the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Ethiopia. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
Mozambique starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,494 vs 1,389).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ethiopia vs Mozambique
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ethiopia
4-4-2- 10A. Yalew
- 10B. Belay
- 21H. Tekeste
- 5H. Sherefa
- 12A. Yesouf
- 20B. Waza
- 16Yared Bayeh Belay
- 4J. Yakob
- 14S. Yohannes
- 2R. Selalo
- 1A. Nura
Mozambique
4-2-3-1- 9Faisal Bangal
- 10Geny Catamo
- 16A. Amade
- 21Guima
- 19Witi
- 18Gildo Lourenço
- 8Edmilson Dove
- 5Bruno Langa
- 15Bruno Wilson
- 2Bheu
- 1Ernan Siluane
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ethiopia have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Mozambique have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Sudan(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Sudan(home) | 4-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Indonesia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Oman(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 0-4 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Ethiopia wins, 1 draw, 0 Mozambique wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique | African Nations Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ethiopia vs Mozambique on Jan 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Ethiopia score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mozambique score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Mozambique | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ethiopia sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Mozambique sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mozambique | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ethiopia vs Mozambique?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mozambique the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Ethiopia.
- Where and when is Ethiopia vs Mozambique played?
- Ethiopia vs Mozambique is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Addis Ababa Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.