Mauritania vs Burkina Faso: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, Nouakchott
The Footlab model makes Burkina Faso the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Mauritania. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mauritania vs Burkina Faso?
Burkina Faso starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,589 vs 1,479).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mauritania have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Burkina Faso have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Angola(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Kuwait(home) | 0-2 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Libya(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Belarus(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Guinea-Bissau(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Ivory Coast(away) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mauritania win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Burkina Faso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | Mauritania 1-0 Burkina Faso | African Nations Championship |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Burkina Faso 1-0 Mauritania | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Oct 17, 2023 | Mauritania 1-2 Burkina Faso | Friendlies |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Mauritania 0-0 Burkina Faso | Friendlies |
| Mar 22, 2019 | Burkina Faso 1-0 Mauritania | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Sep 8, 2018 | Mauritania 2-0 Burkina Faso | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Mauritania vs Burkina Faso on Aug 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Mauritania score 0.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Burkina Faso score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauritania | 0.5 | 0.8 | 8 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| Burkina Faso | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mauritania sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (7 points from 6 matches) and Burkina Faso sit 2nd (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mauritania vs Burkina Faso?
- The Footlab model makes Burkina Faso the favourite at 34%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Mauritania.
- Where and when is Mauritania vs Burkina Faso played?
- Mauritania vs Burkina Faso is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.