Sierra Leone vs Congo DR: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Siaka Stevens National Stadium, Freetown
The Footlab model makes Congo DR the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Sierra Leone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sierra Leone vs Congo DR?
Congo DR starts as the favourite with a 236-point Elo edge (1,685 vs 1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sierra Leone have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Congo DR have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Djibouti(away) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Colombia(away) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Chile(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Denmark(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sierra Leone win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Congo DR win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2022 | Congo DR 3-0 Sierra Leone | Friendlies |
Last archived meeting: Congo DR vs Sierra Leone on Sep 27, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Sierra Leone score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Congo DR score 1.2 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Congo DR | 1.2 | 0.5 | 8 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sierra Leone sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (5 points from 6 matches) and Congo DR sit 1st (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Congo DR | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Sierra Leone | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sierra Leone vs Congo DR?
- The Footlab model makes Congo DR the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Sierra Leone.
- Where and when is Sierra Leone vs Congo DR played?
- Sierra Leone vs Congo DR is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Siaka Stevens National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.