Gambia vs Ivory Coast: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Lat Dior, Thiès
The Footlab AI model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Gambia. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gambia vs Ivory Coast?
Ivory Coast starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,731 vs 1,542).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gambia vs Ivory Coast
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gambia
5-4-1- 10M. Badamosi
- 25A. Barry
- 8E. Adams
- 11A. Sanyang
- 9Suleiman Camara
- 5O. Colley
- 6Y. Bojang
- 4A. Saine
- 15J. Ceesay
- 13I. Touray
- 18B. Gaye
Ivory Coast
4-2-3-1- 12E. Wahi
- 8F. Kessié
- 18I. Sangaré
- 10Y. Diomande
- 19N. Pépé
- 4C. Inao Oulaï
- 20E. Agbadou
- 3G. Konan
- 2O. Diomande
- 21E. Ndicka
- 1Y. Fofana
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gambia have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ivory Coast have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Ghana(away) | 4-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Somalia(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| May 29, 2026 | Iran(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kuwait(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cameroon(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Somalia(away) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Norway(home) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Curaçao(away) | 2-0 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Gambia wins, 0 draws, 2 Ivory Coast wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2025 | Ivory Coast 1-0 Gambia | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Nov 20, 2023 | Gambia 0-2 Ivory Coast | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
Last archived meeting: Ivory Coast vs Gambia on Mar 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Gambia score 2.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ivory Coast score 1.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gambia | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Ivory Coast | 1.8 | 0.8 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gambia sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (6 points from 2 matches) and Ivory Coast sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Gambia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
A question about Gambia vs Ivory Coast?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gambia vs Ivory Coast?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Gambia.
- Where and when is Gambia vs Ivory Coast played?
- Gambia vs Ivory Coast is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Lat Dior, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.