Gambia vs Ivory Coast: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Lat Dior, Thiès
The Footlab model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Gambia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gambia vs Ivory Coast?
Ivory Coast starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gambia have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Ivory Coast have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Iran(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kuwait(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Seychelles(away) | 7-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Gabon(home) | 3-4 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Curaçao(away) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Germany(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Philadelphia Union II(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | France(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Gambia win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Ivory Coast win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2025 | Ivory Coast 1-0 Gambia | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Nov 20, 2023 | Gambia 0-2 Ivory Coast | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
Last archived meeting: Ivory Coast vs Gambia on Mar 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Gambia score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ivory Coast score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gambia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Ivory Coast | 1.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gambia sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Ivory Coast sit 2nd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Gambia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gambia vs Ivory Coast?
- The Footlab model makes Ivory Coast the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Gambia.
- Where and when is Gambia vs Ivory Coast played?
- Gambia vs Ivory Coast is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Lat Dior, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.