Exeter City vs Crawley Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Crawley Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Crawley Town?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Exeter City (1,766) and Crawley Town (1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Crawley Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rochdale(away) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crewe(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Watford(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | York(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Exeter City win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Crawley Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2025 | Crawley Town 3-1 Exeter City | League One |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Exeter City 4-4 Crawley Town | League One |
| Aug 8, 2023 | Exeter City 2-1 Crawley Town | League Cup |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Exeter City 2-1 Crawley Town | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Crawley Town 1-3 Exeter City | League Two |
| Feb 27, 2021 | Crawley Town 2-0 Exeter City | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Crawley Town vs Exeter City on Apr 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Crawley Town score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Crawley Town | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Exeter City sit 13th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Crawley Town sit 15th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Crawley Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Crawley Town?
- The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Crawley Town.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Crawley Town played?
- Exeter City vs Crawley Town is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.