Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)City Light Stadium, Okayama
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,935).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fagiano Okayama have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(home) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Fagiano Okayama win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fagiano Okayama score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fagiano Okayama sit 9th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Fagiano Okayama.
- Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsYokohama F. Marinos
- Sep 5, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsMachida Zelvia
- Sep 5, 2026Vissel KobevsV-varen Nagasaki
- Sep 5, 2026KashimavsUrawa
- Sep 5, 2026Cerezo OsakavsTokyo Verdy
- Sep 5, 2026FC TokyovsKyoto Sanga
- Sep 5, 2026JEF United ChibavsGamba Osaka
- Sep 5, 2026Avispa FukuokavsMito Hollyhock