Kashima vs Urawa: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Urawa. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kashima vs Urawa?
Kashima starts as the favourite with a 227-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 1,930).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Urawa have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(home) | 1-4 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(away) | 3-4 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Omiya Ardija(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | FC Ryukyu(away) | 4-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kashima win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Urawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Kashima 1-0 Urawa | J1 League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Urawa 2-3 Kashima | J1 League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Urawa 0-1 Kashima | J1 League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Kashima 1-1 Urawa | J1 League |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Kashima 0-0 Urawa | J1 League |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Urawa 2-2 Kashima | J1 League |
How many goals should we expect?
Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Urawa score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Urawa | 1.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kashima sit 3rd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Urawa sit 19th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 19 | Urawa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kashima vs Urawa?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Urawa.
- Where and when is Kashima vs Urawa played?
- Kashima vs Urawa is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsYokohama F. Marinos
- Sep 5, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsMachida Zelvia
- Sep 5, 2026Vissel KobevsV-varen Nagasaki
- Sep 5, 2026Cerezo OsakavsTokyo Verdy
- Sep 5, 2026FC TokyovsKyoto Sanga
- Sep 5, 2026JEF United ChibavsGamba Osaka
- Sep 5, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sep 5, 2026Avispa FukuokavsMito Hollyhock