Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia played?

Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota

Nagoya Grampus

Machida Zelvia

The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?

Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 1,951).

Nagoya Grampus win28 %

Draw24 %

Machida Zelvia win48 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Nagoya Grampus
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Gamba Osaka(home)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Kashima(away)	1-2	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Shimizu S-pulse(home)	0-1	J1 League
Jul 25, 2026	Consadole Sapporo(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 21, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

Machida Zelvia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Urawa(home)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	JEF United Chiba(away)	4-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	5-1	J1 League
Jul 18, 2026	Fujieda MYFC(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nagoya Grampus(home)	2-1	J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Machida Zelvia win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 6, 2026	Machida Zelvia 2-1 Nagoya Grampus	J1 League
May 30, 2026	Nagoya Grampus 2-2 Machida Zelvia	J1 League
Nov 30, 2025	Machida Zelvia 3-1 Nagoya Grampus	J1 League
Mar 2, 2025	Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Machida Zelvia	J1 League
Jul 6, 2024	Machida Zelvia 1-0 Nagoya Grampus	J1 League
Mar 2, 2024	Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Machida Zelvia	J1 League

Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus on Jun 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Nagoya Grampus	1.5	1.7	2	11/15	11/15
Machida Zelvia	1.9	0.7	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
13	Nagoya Grampus	3	1	0	2	4	4	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?: The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Nagoya Grampus.
Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia played?: Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.