Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Saunders Transport Community Stadium, Farnborough, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Farnborough. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Farnborough (1,772) and Ebbsfleet United (1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Farnborough have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Ebbsfleet United have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Maidenhead(away) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Chesham United(home) | 1-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town(home) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maidstone Utd(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bath City(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cray Valley PM(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | West Ham United U21(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Dartford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Farnborough win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Ebbsfleet United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United 2-2 Farnborough | National League - South |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Farnborough 1-1 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Feb 28, 2023 | Farnborough 2-2 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Ebbsfleet United 4-2 Farnborough | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Ebbsfleet United vs Farnborough on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Farnborough score 1.8 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ebbsfleet United score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farnborough | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Ebbsfleet United | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Farnborough | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United?
- The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for Farnborough.
- Where and when is Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United played?
- Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Saunders Transport Community Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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