Where and when is FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on February 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu

FC Tokyo

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki?

A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,003) and V-varen Nagasaki (1,910).

FC Tokyo win55 %

Draw24 %

V-varen Nagasaki win21 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Tokyo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Parceiro Nagano(home)	6-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	JEF United Chiba(home)	2-0	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Vissel Kobe(away)	2-2	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Machida Zelvia(home)	1-5	J1 League
Aug 1, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(home)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 FC Tokyo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 22, 2022	FC Tokyo 2-3 V-varen Nagasaki	Emperor Cup
Jul 27, 2018	FC Tokyo 0-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Apr 8, 2018	V-varen Nagasaki 2-5 FC Tokyo	J1 League

Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki on Jun 22, 2022

How many goals should we expect?

FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC Tokyo	1.9	1.5	4	8/15	10/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	FC Tokyo	3	1	1	1	5	7	4
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: FC Tokyo vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on February 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.