Ferreiras vs Aljustrelense: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Nora, Albufeira
The Footlab model makes Ferreiras the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Aljustrelense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ferreiras vs Aljustrelense?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Ferreiras (1,643) and Aljustrelense (1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ferreiras have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Aljustrelense have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2024 | Varzim(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Atlético CP(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 2, 2023 | FC Serpa(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Oriental Dragon(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sintrense(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lagoa(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 10, 2021 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Moura(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Louletano(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H |
How many goals should we expect?
Ferreiras score 0.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aljustrelense score 0.7 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferreiras | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Aljustrelense | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ferreiras vs Aljustrelense?
- The Footlab model makes Ferreiras the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Aljustrelense.
- Where and when is Ferreiras vs Aljustrelense played?
- Ferreiras vs Aljustrelense is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Nora, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.