FK Liepaja vs Tukums: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, Liepāja
The Footlab AI model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Tukums. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,630 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
FK Liepaja starts as the favourite with a 191-point Elo edge (1,686 vs 1,495).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FK Liepaja vs Tukums
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FK Liepaja
4-1-4-1- 18J. Ede
- 5L. Strumia
- 7A. Ogunniyi
- 23A. Haïdara
- 70D. Patijčuks
- 6E. Rodolphe
- 2B. Straalman
- 34João Pedro
- 28A. Korobenko
- 35V. Sorokins
- 24D. Ošs
Tukums
3-5-2- 27R. Deružinskis
- 11Leoni Gastaldelo
- 10B. Samoilovs
- 5J. Toba
- 4K. Anmanis
- 16Kristaps Klavins
- 17M. Derkach
- 6K. Volkovs
- 21D. Valmiers
- 8R. Reingolcs
- 12A. Kuprins
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 05:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Liepaja have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Tukums have 3, 1 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Auda(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Riga(home) | 3-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FK Liepaja wins, 2 draws, 1 Tukums win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums 2-1 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| May 30, 2026 | FK Liepaja 3-0 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Tukums 2-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | FK Liepaja 4-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Tukums 1-3 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| May 6, 2025 | Tukums 2-2 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
FK Liepaja score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Tukums | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Liepaja sit 4th in Virsliga (43 points from 32 matches) and Tukums sit 9th (24 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 43 | 46 | 43 |
| 9 | Tukums | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 63 | 24 |
A question about FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Liepaja vs Tukums?
- The Footlab AI model makes FK Liepaja the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Tukums.
- Where and when is FK Liepaja vs Tukums played?
- FK Liepaja vs Tukums is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.