Florgrade vs São João Ver: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo do Buçaquinho, Cortegaça
The Footlab model makes São João Ver the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Florgrade. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Florgrade vs São João Ver?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Florgrade (1,832) and São João Ver (1,874).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Florgrade have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; São João Ver have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guarda(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rebordosa(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Aparecida(away) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Resende(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Leça(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Sanjoanense(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Florgrade win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 São João Ver win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | São João Ver 0-1 Florgrade | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Florgrade 1-1 São João Ver | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: São João Ver vs Florgrade on Apr 7, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Florgrade score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; São João Ver score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florgrade | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| São João Ver | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Florgrade vs São João Ver?
- The Footlab model makes São João Ver the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Florgrade.
- Where and when is Florgrade vs São João Ver played?
- Florgrade vs São João Ver is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo do Buçaquinho, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.