Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln is played on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

1. FC Köln

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for 1. FC Köln. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln?

FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,155 vs 2,048).

FSV Mainz 05 win56 %

Draw21 %

1. FC Köln win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; 1. FC Köln have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

1. FC Köln
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Würzburger Kickers(away)	2-1	DFB Pokal
Aug 8, 2026	Real Sociedad(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Hertha BSC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 23, 2026	Bergisch Gladbach(away)	8-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-5	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 1. FC Köln win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 17, 2026	1. FC Köln 2-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Aug 24, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 0-1 1. FC Köln	Bundesliga
Apr 28, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 1-1 1. FC Köln	Bundesliga
Dec 10, 2023	1. FC Köln 0-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Apr 15, 2023	1. FC Köln 1-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Oct 21, 2022	FSV Mainz 05 5-0 1. FC Köln	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: 1. FC Köln vs FSV Mainz 05 on Jan 17, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; 1. FC Köln score 2.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15
1. FC Köln	2.0	1.9	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and 1. FC Köln sit 14th (32 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40
14	1. FC Köln	34	7	11	16	49	63	32

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 56%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for 1. FC Köln.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Köln is played on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.