Match

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB LeipzigBorussia Dortmund

The Footlab AI model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 1-1. If RB Leipzig wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?

A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate RB Leipzig (2,216) and Borussia Dortmund (2,315).

45%24%31%
RB Leipzig winDrawBorussia Dortmund win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

RB Leipzig

4-5-1
  1. 28C. Nkunku
  1. 7A. Nusa
  2. 6E. Banzuzi
  3. 21N. El Aynaoui
  4. 10B. Gruda
  5. 20R. Reitz
  1. 4W. Orbán
  2. 22D. Raum
  3. 23C. Lukeba
  4. 17R. Baku
  1. 26M. Vandevoordt

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1
  1. 9S. Guirassy
  1. 24D. Svensson
  2. 14M. Beier
  3. 7J. Bellingham
  4. 8F. Nmecha
  5. 18E. Nwaneri
  6. 26J. Ryerson
  1. 3W. Anton
  2. 22Kouakou Joane Gadou
  3. 4N. Schlotterbeck
  1. 1G. Kobel

Computed on October 19, 2026 at 06:00 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RB Leipzig have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

RB Leipzig
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Bayern München(away)1-6Bundesliga
Oct 13, 2026PSV Eindhoven(home)1-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)6-0Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)0-2Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026Hamburger SV(home)5-0Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Union Berlin(away)0-0Bundesliga
Oct 14, 2026Bodo/Glimt(away)0-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 9, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 19, 2026VfB Stuttgart(away)1-0Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026SC Paderborn 07(home)3-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 RB Leipzig wins, 2 draws, 1 Borussia Dortmund win.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 21, 2026RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Oct 4, 2025Borussia Dortmund 1-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Mar 15, 2025RB Leipzig 2-0 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Nov 2, 2024Borussia Dortmund 2-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Apr 27, 2024RB Leipzig 4-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Dec 9, 2023Borussia Dortmund 2-3 RB LeipzigBundesliga

Last archived meeting: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund on Feb 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
RB Leipzig2.21.676/1511/15
Borussia Dortmund1.81.167/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

RB Leipzig sit 7th in Bundesliga (9 points from 6 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (14 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Borussia Dortmund642011414
7RB Leipzig630316119

A question about RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?
The Footlab AI model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Borussia Dortmund.
Where and when is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund played?
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund is played on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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