Where and when is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund played?

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund is played on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB Leipzig

Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?

A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate RB Leipzig (2,211) and Borussia Dortmund (2,293).

RB Leipzig win41 %

Draw24 %

Borussia Dortmund win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RB Leipzig have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 1 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

RB Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Eintracht Trier(away)	6-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Leeds(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Verl(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 RB Leipzig win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Borussia Dortmund win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 21, 2026	RB Leipzig 2-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Oct 4, 2025	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Mar 15, 2025	RB Leipzig 2-0 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Nov 2, 2024	Borussia Dortmund 2-1 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Apr 27, 2024	RB Leipzig 4-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Dec 9, 2023	Borussia Dortmund 2-3 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund on Feb 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
RB Leipzig	2.2	1.4	5	9/15	12/15
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

RB Leipzig sit 3rd in Bundesliga (65 points from 34 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	65

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund?: The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Borussia Dortmund.
Where and when is RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund played?: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund is played on December 19, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.