Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

Bayer Leverkusen

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Bayer Leverkusen. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (2,277 vs 2,142).

FSV Mainz 05 win41 %

Draw24 %

Bayer Leverkusen win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 10, 1 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Bayer Leverkusen win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 28, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
May 17, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Jan 14, 2025	Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Feb 23, 2024	Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Sep 30, 2023	FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 on Feb 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th (59 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Bayer Leverkusen.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.