Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Bayer Leverkusen. The most likely score is 1-1. If FSV Mainz 05 wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?

On Elo ratings, FSV Mainz 05 has 2,163 points and Bayer Leverkusen 2,284.

42%25%33%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 23S. Becker
  2. 9P. Tietz
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  3. 19A. Caci
  4. 6K. Sano
  5. 2P. Mwene
  1. 3F. Gruber
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 4S. Posch
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Known absences

  • D. KohrOut · Foot injury
  • R. ZentnerOut · Hand injury
  • S. Katompa MvumpaOut · Fracture
  • O. RuoppiDoubtful · Knee injury
  • P. NebelDoubtful · Muscle injury
  • S. WidmerDoubtful · Knee injury

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 6E. Fernández
  3. 30I. Maza
  4. 9Afonso Moreira
  5. 19M. Diaby
  1. 12E. Tapsoba
  2. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  3. 2F. Medina
  4. 4J. Quansah
  1. 1M. Flekken

Known absences

  • G. DouéOut · Calf injury
  • M. CulbreathOut · Foot injury
  • K. EichhornDoubtful · Illness

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:03 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 10, 2 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3Bundesliga
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV(away)5-0Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026SC Paderborn 07(home)0-0Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026RB Leipzig(home)2-0Bundesliga
Sep 16, 2026Celje(home)2-0UEFA Europa League
Sep 12, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-2Bundesliga
Sep 5, 2026Union Berlin(home)4-0Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026SV Elversberg(away)2-3Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FSV Mainz 05 wins, 2 draws, 4 Bayer Leverkusen wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 28, 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
May 17, 2025FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Jan 14, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Feb 23, 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Sep 30, 2023FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 on Feb 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 053.50.996/1512/15
Bayer Leverkusen2.70.978/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 6th in Bundesliga (7 points from 4 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5Bayer Leverkusen42111057
6FSV Mainz 0542111067

A question about FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Bayer Leverkusen.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen

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