Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 is played on February 27, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

FC Schalke 04

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for FC Schalke 04. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04?

A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate FSV Mainz 05 (2,155) and FC Schalke 04 (2,062).

FSV Mainz 05 win52 %

Draw23 %

FC Schalke 04 win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; FC Schalke 04 have 11, 0 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

FC Schalke 04
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Hallescher FC(away)	5-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 16, 2026	Real Madrid(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Atalanta(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Hessen Kassel(away)	5-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 FC Schalke 04 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 5, 2023	FSV Mainz 05 2-3 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Nov 9, 2022	FC Schalke 04 1-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Mar 5, 2021	FC Schalke 04 0-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Nov 7, 2020	FSV Mainz 05 2-2 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Feb 16, 2020	FSV Mainz 05 0-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2019	FC Schalke 04 2-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 on May 5, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Schalke 04 score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15
FC Schalke 04	2.1	1.3	5	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for FC Schalke 04.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Schalke 04 is played on February 27, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.