Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Weserstadion, Bremen
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Werder Bremen. The most likely score is 1-1. If FSV Mainz 05 wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,876 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Werder Bremen (2,107) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,202).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Werder Bremen
4-2-3-1- 10N. Füllkrug
- 15L. Reis
- 20Chuky San José
- 17M. Grüll
- 44Y. Regeer
- 18E. Dinkçi
- 2O. Deman
- 32M. Friedl
- 5A. Pieper
- 13Arthur
- 1K. Hein
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2- 9P. Tietz
- 23S. Becker
- 10N. Amiri
- 19A. Caci
- 2P. Mwene
- 6K. Sano
- 7Lee Jae-Sung
- 4S. Posch
- 48K. Potulski
- 3F. Gruber
- 1A. Schwolow
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 10:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Werder Bremen have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07(home) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(away) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Augsburg(home) | 3-2 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 3-1 | Bundesliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 3-4 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Waldhof Mannheim(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 1-3 | Bundesliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Werder Bremen wins, 1 draw, 1 FSV Mainz 05 win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Werder Bremen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Feb 3, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Werder Bremen 4-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Werder Bremen score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 9 | 6/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Werder Bremen sit 8th in Bundesliga (9 points from 6 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 5th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
A question about Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?
- The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Werder Bremen.
- Where and when is Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
- Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Weserstadion, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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