Where and when is Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 played?

Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Weserstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Weserstadion, Bremen

Werder Bremen

FSV Mainz 05

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Werder Bremen. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?

FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 2,041).

Werder Bremen win28 %

Draw23 %

FSV Mainz 05 win48 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Werder Bremen have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Werder Bremen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Lüneburger SK Hansa(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Auxerre(home)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	SC Paderborn 07(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Energie Cottbus(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	VfL Bochum(home)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Werder Bremen win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 15, 2026	Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Nov 1, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen	Bundesliga
Jan 31, 2025	Werder Bremen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Sep 15, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen	Bundesliga
Feb 3, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder Bremen	Bundesliga
Sep 2, 2023	Werder Bremen 4-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Werder Bremen score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen	1.8	1.3	4	8/15	8/15
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Werder Bremen sit 15th in Bundesliga (32 points from 34 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th (40 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37	60	32

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Werder Bremen.
Where and when is Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 played?: Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Weserstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.