Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig is played on April 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

RB Leipzig

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?

A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate FSV Mainz 05 (2,158) and RB Leipzig (2,211).

FSV Mainz 05 win48 %

Draw23 %

RB Leipzig win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; RB Leipzig have 10, 0 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

RB Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Eintracht Trier(away)	6-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Leeds(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Verl(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 RB Leipzig win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 31, 2026	RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 0-1 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Mar 1, 2025	RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Oct 19, 2024	FSV Mainz 05 0-2 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Mar 30, 2024	RB Leipzig 0-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Nov 4, 2023	FSV Mainz 05 2-0 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 on Jan 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15
RB Leipzig	2.2	1.4	5	9/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 3rd (65 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	65
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for RB Leipzig.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig is played on April 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.