Gainare Tottori vs Thespakusatsu Gunma: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Axis Bird Stadium, Tottori
The Footlab model makes Gainare Tottori the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gainare Tottori vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Gainare Tottori (1,694) and Thespakusatsu Gunma (1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gainare Tottori have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 2-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ehime FC(away) | 0-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tohoku Gakuin University(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sagamihara(home) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gainare Tottori win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | Gainare Tottori 3-1 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-0 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Gainare Tottori 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
| Jun 9, 2019 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 5-0 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| Nov 11, 2018 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 3-3 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| Jul 28, 2018 | Gainare Tottori 1-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Gainare Tottori vs Thespakusatsu Gunma on Sep 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Gainare Tottori score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gainare Tottori sit 10th in J3 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 20th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gainare Tottori | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gainare Tottori vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
- The Footlab model makes Gainare Tottori the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
- Where and when is Gainare Tottori vs Thespakusatsu Gunma played?
- Gainare Tottori vs Thespakusatsu Gunma is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Axis Bird Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026FC GifuvsFukushima United
- Oct 17, 2026KanazawavsNara Club
- Oct 17, 2026Renofa YamaguchivsKochi United
- Oct 17, 2026Kamatamare SanukivsRoasso Kumamoto
- Oct 17, 2026KitakyushuvsOsaka
- Oct 17, 2026FC RyukyuvsTochigi SC
- Oct 17, 2026Kagoshima UnitedvsEhime FC
- Oct 17, 2026Parceiro NaganovsMatsumoto Yamaga