Kitakyushu vs Osaka: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)Mikuni World Stadium, Kitakyushu
The Footlab AI model makes Osaka the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 1-1. If Osaka wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kitakyushu vs Osaka?
Osaka starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,655).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kitakyushu vs Osaka
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kitakyushu
4-3-3- 37K. Yoshida
- 11Koh Seung-Jin
- 10R. Nagai
- 66D. Takahashi
- 18S. Hiramatsu
- 51Yutaro Sakashita
- 3R. Kamihashi
- 28K. Yokokubo
- 30K. Fukumori
- 20S. Yasumitsu
- 31K. Otani
Osaka
4-4-2- 95K. Isa
- 29R. Sugawara
- 11G. Yoshida
- 17S. Morimura
- 14S. Sumida
- 10R. Kubo
- 2K. Sakamoto
- 25Riku Kuwako
- 6S. Tachino
- 5Y. Minakuchi
- 1H. Sugawara
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:18 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitakyushu have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Osaka have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 0-2 | J3 League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Kochi United(home) | 2-0 | J3 League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 1-3 | J-League Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kagoshima United(home) | 1-1 | J3 League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sagamihara(away) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 1-1 | J3 League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Sagamihara(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 1-2 | J-League Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 4-0 | J3 League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 4-1 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kitakyushu wins, 3 draws, 1 Osaka win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2025 | Osaka 0-3 Kitakyushu | J3 League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Kitakyushu 1-0 Osaka | J3 League |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Osaka 3-2 Kitakyushu | J3 League |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Kitakyushu 0-0 Osaka | J3 League |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Osaka 0-0 Kitakyushu | J3 League |
| Jul 16, 2023 | Kitakyushu 0-0 Osaka | J3 League |
How many goals should we expect?
Kitakyushu score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitakyushu | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kitakyushu sit 16th in J3 League (10 points from 10 matches) and Osaka sit 6th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 17 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
A question about Kitakyushu vs Osaka?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kitakyushu vs Osaka?
- The Footlab AI model makes Osaka the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Kitakyushu.
- Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Osaka played?
- Kitakyushu vs Osaka is played on October 17, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 18, 2026Renofa YamaguchivsKochi United
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