Match

Kitakyushu vs Osaka: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Mikuni World Stadium, Kitakyushu

KitakyushuOsaka

The Footlab model makes Osaka the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kitakyushu vs Osaka?

A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Kitakyushu (1,618) and Osaka (1,714).

Kitakyushu win30 %
Draw27 %
Osaka win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitakyushu have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Osaka have 3, 7 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kitakyushu
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Tochigi SC(away)2-2J3 League
Aug 19, 2026Okinawa SV(home)1-2Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026Kamatamare Sanuki(home)0-0J3 League
Jul 18, 2026Yokohama FC(away)2-3Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026Tochigi SC(away)1-2J2/J3 League
Osaka
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026FC Ryukyu(home)2-2J3 League
Aug 19, 2026Nara Club(away)4-1Emperor Cup
Aug 16, 2026Parceiro Nagano(home)4-2J3 League
Aug 8, 2026Gainare Tottori(away)1-1J3 League
Jul 19, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(away)2-3Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kitakyushu win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Osaka win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2025Osaka 0-3 KitakyushuJ3 League
Apr 5, 2025Kitakyushu 1-0 OsakaJ3 League
Oct 19, 2024Osaka 3-2 KitakyushuJ3 League
Mar 20, 2024Kitakyushu 0-0 OsakaJ3 League
Sep 24, 2023Osaka 0-0 KitakyushuJ3 League
Jul 16, 2023Kitakyushu 0-0 OsakaJ3 League

Last archived meeting: Osaka vs Kitakyushu on Sep 19, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Kitakyushu score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Osaka score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Kitakyushu1.11.9210/1510/15
Osaka1.51.4111/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kitakyushu sit 15th in J3 League (2 points from 2 matches) and Osaka sit 7th (5 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Osaka3120755
15Kitakyushu2020222

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kitakyushu vs Osaka?
The Footlab model makes Osaka the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Kitakyushu.
Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Osaka played?
Kitakyushu vs Osaka is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Kitakyushu and Osaka

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