Garliava vs Atmosfera: prediction and stats
1 LygaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas, Garliava
The Footlab model makes Atmosfera the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Garliava. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Garliava vs Atmosfera?
Atmosfera starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,365 vs 1,262).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Garliava have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Atmosfera have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Be1 NFA(away) | 0-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tauras(home) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hegelmann II(away) | 1-3 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Neptūną Klaipėda(home) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jonava(away) | 0-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dainava(away) | 1-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Transinvest 2(away) | 0-2 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FA Šiauliai II(home) | 1-1 | 1 Lyga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris II(away) | 1-3 | 1 Lyga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hegelmann II(home) | 4-1 | 1 Lyga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Garliava win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Atmosfera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Atmosfera 1-1 Garliava | 1 Lyga |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Garliava 0-1 Atmosfera | 1 Lyga |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Atmosfera 3-2 Garliava | 1 Lyga |
| Oct 7, 2022 | Atmosfera 2-3 Garliava | 1 Lyga |
| Jun 3, 2022 | Garliava 1-1 Atmosfera | 1 Lyga |
Last archived meeting: Atmosfera vs Garliava on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Garliava score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Atmosfera score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garliava | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Atmosfera | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Garliava sit 11th in 1 Lyga (22 points from 20 matches) and Atmosfera sit 9th (26 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atmosfera | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 25 | 26 |
| 11 | Garliava | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 22 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Garliava vs Atmosfera?
- The Footlab model makes Atmosfera the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Garliava.
- Where and when is Garliava vs Atmosfera played?
- Garliava vs Atmosfera is played on October 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas, in the 1 Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.