Genoa vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
The Footlab model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Genoa (1,991) and Fiorentina (2,086).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genoa have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Fiorentina have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-10 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | QPR(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Genoa win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Fiorentina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Genoa 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Genoa 1-4 Fiorentina | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Genoa score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Fiorentina | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Genoa vs Fiorentina played?
- Genoa vs Fiorentina is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.