Genoa vs Fiorentina: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genova
The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Genoa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fiorentina wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Genoa (1,944) and Fiorentina (2,043).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Genoa vs Fiorentina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Genoa
3-4-2-1- 8T. Baldanzi
- 32M. Frendrup
- 3K. Ehizibue
- 77M. Ellertsson
- 97D. Sow
- 20S. Sabelli
- 16C. Drameh
- 27A. Marcandalli
- 5L. Østigård
- 34S. Otoa
- 1J. Bijlow
Known absences
E. MeichtryOut · Muscle injury
L. ColomboOut · Ankle injury- L. VenturinoOut · Knee injury
E. HavelDoubtful · Ankle injury
Fiorentina
4-3-3- 30Franco Mastantuono
- 32Mateo Pellegrino
- 25A. Njie
- 27C. Ndour
- 44N. Fagioli
- 14A. Atta
- 3R. Drăgușin
- 33Viery
- 20Álex Jiménez
- 6L. Ranieri
- 43David de Gea
Known absences
- F. ParisiOut · Knee injury
- R. SottilOut · Back injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Genoa have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Fiorentina have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Rapid(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Parma(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sudtirol(home) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Pisa(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 4-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Torino(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Genoa wins, 3 draws, 3 Fiorentina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa | Serie A |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Genoa 2-2 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Fiorentina 2-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina | Serie A |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Genoa 1-4 Fiorentina | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Genoa score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fiorentina score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Fiorentina | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Genoa sit 19th in Serie A (1 point from 5 matches) and Fiorentina sit 17th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
A question about Genoa vs Fiorentina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fiorentina the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Genoa.
- Where and when is Genoa vs Fiorentina played?
- Genoa vs Fiorentina is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.