Napoli vs Frosinone: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Frosinone. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Napoli vs Frosinone?
Napoli starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (2,205 vs 2,062).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Napoli have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Frosinone have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Juve Stabia(home) | 4-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sambenedettese(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ascoli(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Napoli win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Frosinone win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | Napoli 2-2 Frosinone | Serie A |
| Dec 19, 2023 | Napoli 0-4 Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Frosinone 1-3 Napoli | Serie A |
| Apr 28, 2019 | Frosinone 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2018 | Napoli 4-0 Frosinone | Serie A |
| May 14, 2016 | Napoli 4-0 Frosinone | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Napoli score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Frosinone score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Frosinone | 2.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 36 | 76 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Frosinone?
- The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Frosinone.
- Where and when is Napoli vs Frosinone played?
- Napoli vs Frosinone is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.