Sassuolo vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC)MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sassuolo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (2,182 vs 2,048).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sassuolo have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cesena(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Padova(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sassuolo win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 14, 2025 | AC Milan 2-2 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Dec 3, 2024 | AC Milan 6-1 Sassuolo | Coppa Italia |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Sassuolo 3-3 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 30, 2023 | AC Milan 1-0 Sassuolo | Serie A |
| Jan 29, 2023 | AC Milan 2-5 Sassuolo | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Sassuolo score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sassuolo sit 11th in Serie A (49 points from 38 matches) and AC Milan sit 5th (70 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53 | 35 | 70 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46 | 50 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes AC Milan the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Sassuolo.
- Where and when is Sassuolo vs AC Milan played?
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.