Match

Sassuolo vs AC Milan: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia

SassuoloAC Milan

The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Sassuolo. The most likely score is 1-1. If AC Milan wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

AC Milan starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (2,145 vs 2,003).

25%27%48%
Sassuolo winDrawAC Milan win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Sassuolo vs AC Milan

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Sassuolo

4-3-3
  1. 45A. Laurienté
  2. 10D. Berardi
  3. 94S. Esposito
  1. 18N. Matić
  2. 42K. Thorstvedt
  3. 50D. Bakola
  1. 3J. Doig
  2. 16F. Leysen
  3. 46S. Cinquegrano
  4. 21J. Idzes
  1. 49A. Murić

Known absences

  • D. BolocaOut · Muscle injury
  • E. PieragnoloOut · Knee injury
  • Fali CandéOut · Knee injury
  • I. KonéOut · Fracture
  • S. WalukiewiczOut · Muscle injury
  • Y. PazOut · Knee injury

AC Milan

3-4-2-1
  1. 9Gonçalo Ramos
  1. 21S. Chukwueze
  2. 14L. Modrić
  3. 2P. Estupiñán
  4. 12A. Rabiot
  5. 80Y. Musah
  6. 33D. Bartesaghi
  1. 31S. Pavlović
  2. 5K. De Winter
  3. 34Mario Gila
  1. 16M. Maignan

Known absences

  • C. PulišićOut · Calf injury

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:01 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sassuolo have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sassuolo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 18, 2026Monza(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Juventus(home)3-2Serie A
Sep 6, 2026Bologna(away)2-2Serie A
Sep 2, 2026Frosinone(home)1-1Coppa Italia
Aug 29, 2026Torino(home)2-1Serie A
AC Milan
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Lecce(home)3-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Benfica(home)0-2UEFA Europa League
Sep 12, 2026Lazio(away)2-2Serie A
Sep 6, 2026Juventus(away)1-1Serie A
Aug 28, 2026Venezia(home)2-0Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sassuolo wins, 2 draws, 2 AC Milan wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Sassuolo 2-0 AC MilanSerie A
Dec 14, 2025AC Milan 2-2 SassuoloSerie A
Dec 3, 2024AC Milan 6-1 SassuoloCoppa Italia
Apr 14, 2024Sassuolo 3-3 AC MilanSerie A
Dec 30, 2023AC Milan 1-0 SassuoloSerie A
Jan 29, 2023AC Milan 2-5 SassuoloSerie A

Last archived meeting: Sassuolo vs AC Milan on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sassuolo score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sassuolo1.71.6311/1511/15
AC Milan1.51.539/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sassuolo sit 10th in Serie A (7 points from 5 matches) and AC Milan sit 5th (11 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5AC Milan532010411
10Sassuolo5212997

A question about Sassuolo vs AC Milan?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
The Footlab AI model makes AC Milan the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Sassuolo.
Where and when is Sassuolo vs AC Milan played?
Sassuolo vs AC Milan is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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