Gent vs Union St. Gilloise: prediction and stats
Jupiler Pro LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Planet Group Arena, Gent
The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Gent. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (2,191 vs 1,980).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gent have 4 wins, 10 draws and 1 defeats; Union St. Gilloise have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hibernian(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | RAAL La Louvière(away) | 2-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 2-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | IFK Goteborg(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zulte Waregem(home) | 0-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | KVC Westerlo(away) | 5-1 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 1-1 | Super Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Gent win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Union St. Gilloise win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise 0-0 Gent | Jupiler Pro League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Gent | Jupiler Pro League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Gent 2-3 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
| May 25, 2025 | Union St. Gilloise 3-1 Gent | Jupiler Pro League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Gent 0-3 Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
Last archived meeting: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise on May 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gent score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Union St. Gilloise score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gent sit 5th in Jupiler Pro League (6 points from 2 matches) and Union St. Gilloise sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gent | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
- The Footlab model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Gent.
- Where and when is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise played?
- Gent vs Union St. Gilloise is played on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Planet Group Arena, in the Jupiler Pro League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.