Germany vs Italy: result 3-3 and analysis
UEFA Nations LeagueQuarter-finalsKick-off on March 23, 2025 at 07:45 PM (UTC)SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund
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What was the result of Germany vs Italy?
Germany and Italy drew 3-3 on March 23, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 30′J. KimmichGermany (pen.)
- 36′J. MusialaGermany
- 45′T. KleindienstGermany
- 49′M. KeanItaly
- 69′M. KeanItaly
- 90′G. RaspadoriItaly (pen.)
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Germany have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Italy have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | Italy(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 19, 2024 | Hungary(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Netherlands(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | Germany(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 17, 2024 | France(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Belgium(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Israel(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Belgium(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Germany win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Italy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | Italy 1-2 Germany | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 14, 2022 | Germany 5-2 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 4, 2022 | Italy 1-1 Germany | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 2, 2016 | Germany 2-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
| Jun 28, 2012 | Germany 1-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Germany score 2.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Italy score 1.5 and concede 1.1.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2.3 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Italy | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy