Italy vs Germany: result 1-2 and analysis
UEFA Nations LeagueQuarter-finalsKick-off on March 20, 2025 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano
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What was the result of Italy vs Germany?
Germany won 1-2 on March 20, 2025.
Goalscorers
- 9′S. TonaliItaly
- 49′T. KleindienstGermany
- 76′L. GoretzkaGermany
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Italy have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Germany have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2024 | France(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 14, 2024 | Belgium(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Israel(home) | 4-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Belgium(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 9, 2024 | Israel(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2024 | Hungary(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Netherlands(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Bosnia & Herzegovina(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Netherlands(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Italy win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Germany win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2022 | Germany 5-2 Italy | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 4, 2022 | Italy 1-1 Germany | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 2, 2016 | Germany 2-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
| Jun 28, 2012 | Germany 1-2 Italy | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Italy score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Germany score 2.3 and concede 0.7.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Germany | 2.3 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy