Gnistan vs Turku PS: prediction and stats
VeikkausliigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki
The Footlab model makes Gnistan the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Turku PS. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gnistan vs Turku PS?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Gnistan (1,774) and Turku PS (1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gnistan have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Turku PS have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 3-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | SJK(away) | 2-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | KuPS(home) | 0-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 2-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | AC Oulu(away) | 2-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | VPS(away) | 3-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | KuPS(away) | 1-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mariehamn(home) | 3-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 0-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-3 | Veikkausliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gnistan win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Turku PS win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Turku PS 1-1 Gnistan | Veikkausliiga |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Turku PS 0-2 Gnistan | League Cup |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Turku PS 2-0 Gnistan | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Gnistan 2-0 Turku PS | Ykkönen |
| Jul 23, 2023 | Gnistan 0-3 Turku PS | Ykkönen |
| May 13, 2023 | Turku PS 0-2 Gnistan | Ykkönen |
How many goals should we expect?
Gnistan score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Turku PS score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gnistan | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Turku PS | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gnistan sit 4th in Veikkausliiga (32 points from 20 matches) and Turku PS sit 7th (29 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gnistan | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Turku PS | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gnistan vs Turku PS?
- The Footlab model makes Gnistan the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Turku PS.
- Where and when is Gnistan vs Turku PS played?
- Gnistan vs Turku PS is played on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Mustapekka Areena, in the Veikkausliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.