Ilves vs HJK Helsinki: prediction and stats
VeikkausliigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ratinan Stadion, Tampere (Tammerfors)
The Footlab model makes HJK Helsinki the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Ilves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ilves vs HJK Helsinki?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Ilves (1,834) and HJK Helsinki (1,871).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ilves have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; HJK Helsinki have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | VPS(home) | 0-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Gnistan(away) | 2-3 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mariehamn(home) | 2-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Gnistan(home) | 2-3 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FF Jaro(home) | 3-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AC Oulu(away) | 1-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Motherwell(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ilves win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 HJK Helsinki win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | HJK Helsinki 2-1 Ilves | Suomen Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves | Veikkausliiga |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Ilves 3-1 HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 29, 2025 | HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 11, 2025 | HJK Helsinki 5-1 Ilves | Veikkausliiga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Ilves 3-2 HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga |
Last archived meeting: HJK Helsinki vs Ilves on Jun 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ilves score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; HJK Helsinki score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| HJK Helsinki | 1.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ilves sit 9th in Veikkausliiga (25 points from 21 matches) and HJK Helsinki sit 4th (34 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | HJK Helsinki | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 26 | 34 |
| 9 | Ilves | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 35 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ilves vs HJK Helsinki?
- The Footlab model makes HJK Helsinki the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Ilves.
- Where and when is Ilves vs HJK Helsinki played?
- Ilves vs HJK Helsinki is played on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ratinan Stadion, in the Veikkausliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.