VPS vs Lahti: prediction and stats
VeikkausliigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa
The Footlab model makes VPS the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Lahti. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win VPS vs Lahti?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate VPS (1,769) and Lahti (1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VPS have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lahti have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Turku PS(home) | 1-3 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FF Jaro(away) | 3-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Inter Turku(home) | 0-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KuPS(away) | 1-3 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | HJK Helsinki(away) | 1-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | KuPS(home) | 1-2 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 0-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FF Jaro(home) | 2-0 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 0-1 | Veikkausliiga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Mariehamn(away) | 2-0 | Veikkausliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 VPS win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Lahti win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Lahti 1-1 VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Lahti 0-0 VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| May 3, 2024 | VPS 3-0 Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Lahti 0-2 VPS | Veikkausliiga |
| Apr 5, 2023 | VPS 0-0 Lahti | Veikkausliiga |
| Sep 28, 2022 | Lahti 0-2 VPS | Veikkausliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
VPS score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Lahti score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lahti | 1.3 | 1.0 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
VPS sit 5th in Veikkausliiga (30 points from 20 matches) and Lahti sit 8th (26 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VPS | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 21 | 30 |
| 8 | Lahti | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 18 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for VPS vs Lahti?
- The Footlab model makes VPS the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Lahti.
- Where and when is VPS vs Lahti played?
- VPS vs Lahti is played on August 31, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Lemonsoft Stadion, in the Veikkausliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.