Excelsior vs Groningen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Groningen. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs Groningen?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,948) and Groningen (1,942).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Excelsior vs Groningen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Excelsior
4-3-3- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 21I. Silva Timas
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Groningen
4-2-3-1- 9B. Willumsson
- 24P. Clement
- 8T. de Jonge
- 26T. van Bergen
- 17D. van der Werff
- 18T. Land
- 3T. Blokzijl
- 14J. Schreuders
- 4M. Csinger
- 2Wouter Prins
- 1E. Vaessen
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Groningen have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior wins, 0 draws, 4 Groningen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Groningen 2-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Groningen 3-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Excelsior 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2021 | Excelsior 2-4 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
Last archived meeting: Groningen vs Excelsior on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Groningen score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Groningen | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 7th in Eredivisie (11 points from 7 matches) and Groningen sit 8th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 11 |
A question about Excelsior vs Groningen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Groningen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Groningen.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs Groningen played?
- Excelsior vs Groningen is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.