Excelsior vs Groningen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Groningen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excelsior vs Groningen?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Excelsior (1,932) and Groningen (1,949).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excelsior have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Groningen have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 5-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Volos NFC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Excelsior win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Groningen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Groningen 2-3 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Jan 16, 2024 | Excelsior 0-2 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| Feb 25, 2023 | Groningen 3-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Jan 8, 2023 | Excelsior 1-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 15, 2021 | Excelsior 2-4 Groningen | KNVB Beker |
Last archived meeting: Groningen vs Excelsior on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excelsior score 2.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Groningen score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Groningen | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excelsior sit 10th in Eredivisie (3 points from 2 matches) and Groningen sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excelsior vs Groningen?
- The Footlab model makes Excelsior the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Groningen.
- Where and when is Excelsior vs Groningen played?
- Excelsior vs Groningen is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.