Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Focus Community Arena, Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire
The Footlab model makes Torquay the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Hemel Hempstead Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Hemel Hempstead Town (1,835) and Torquay (1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hemel Hempstead Town have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Torquay have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salisbury(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Maidenhead(home) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelmsford City(home) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St Albans City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dagenham & Redbridge(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Horsham(home) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Hemel Hempstead Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Torquay win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Torquay 1-2 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town 2-1 Torquay | National League - South |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town 1-4 Torquay | National League - South |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Torquay 1-0 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Torquay 3-2 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Hemel Hempstead Town 3-2 Torquay | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Torquay vs Hemel Hempstead Town on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hemel Hempstead Town score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Torquay score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hemel Hempstead Town | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Torquay | 2.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hemel Hempstead Town sit 6th in National League - South (7 points from 4 matches) and Torquay sit 13th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Torquay | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay?
- The Footlab model makes Torquay the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Hemel Hempstead Town.
- Where and when is Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay played?
- Hemel Hempstead Town vs Torquay is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Focus Community Arena, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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