Independiente vs San Lorenzo: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 9Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for San Lorenzo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Independiente (1,923) and San Lorenzo (1,833).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; San Lorenzo have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-4 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Platense(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Independiente win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 San Lorenzo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 8, 2025 | San Lorenzo 1-2 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Independiente 0-0 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 1, 2023 | San Lorenzo 0-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 4, 2022 | San Lorenzo 1-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: San Lorenzo vs Independiente on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; San Lorenzo score 0.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| San Lorenzo | 0.6 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente sit 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina (24 points from 16 matches) and San Lorenzo sit 7th (22 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Independiente | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 22 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for San Lorenzo.
- Where and when is Independiente vs San Lorenzo played?
- Independiente vs San Lorenzo is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Libertadores de América, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 13, 2026Defensa Y JusticiavsGimnasia M.
- Sep 13, 2026HuracanvsRacing Club
- Sep 13, 2026BanfieldvsBarracas Central
- Sep 13, 2026Estudiantes L.P.vsPlatense
- Sep 13, 2026Boca JuniorsvsCentral Cordoba de Santiago
- Sep 13, 2026TigrevsRosario Central
- Sep 13, 2026Atletico TucumanvsRiver Plate
- Sep 13, 2026Talleres CordobavsUnion Santa Fe