Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 20Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab AI model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Mbeya City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Kagera Sugar wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Kagera Sugar (1,508) and Mbeya City (1,537).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kagera Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Kagera Sugar lineup.
Mbeya City
4-3-3- 10E. Ambokile
- 49O. Mwajanga
- 22V. Mayanga
- 21J. Mwanuke
- 20H. Haji
- 32O. Abdallah
- 26A. Buha
- 14Nassor Mbarouk
- 5Y. Seleman Mbegu
- 4K. Pillar
- 31T. Reuben
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 06:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Mbeya City have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 3-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fountain Gate(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Mashujaa(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 1-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Tabora United(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fountain Gate(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kagera Sugar wins, 3 draws, 0 Mbeya City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Mbeya City 1-3 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 1-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 17, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-2 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Mar 12, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 8, 2021 | Mbeya City 0-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar on Oct 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mbeya City score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Mbeya City | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 14th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 8 matches) and Mbeya City sit 9th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 6 |
A question about Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Mbeya City.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City is played on February 7, 2027 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.