Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC)Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
The Footlab model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Mbeya City (1,497) and Kagera Sugar (1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mbeya City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mbeya City win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Kagera Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 1-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 17, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-2 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Mar 12, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Apr 8, 2021 | Mbeya City 0-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 24, 2020 | Kagera Sugar 1-2 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Mbeya City on Apr 23, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Mbeya City score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbeya City | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mbeya City sit 5th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 3 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 15th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mbeya City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Mbeya City vs Kagera Sugar is played on October 9, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC) at Sokoine Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.