Kaposvar vs Sárbogárd: prediction and stats
NB III - SouthwestSouthwest - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Rákóczi Stadion, Kaposvár
The Footlab model makes Kaposvar the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Sárbogárd. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kaposvar vs Sárbogárd?
Kaposvar is a heavy favourite: 1,670 Elo points against 1,310 — a 360-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kaposvar have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Sárbogárd have 3, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | PTE-PEAC(home) | 1-0 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Szekszárd(away) | 3-0 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Budaörs(home) | 7-0 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Siofok(home) | 2-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| May 24, 2026 | Dombóvári(home) | 6-2 | NB III - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(away) | 0-3 | Magyar Kupa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Majosi(away) | 0-3 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Pécsi MFC(home) | 0-6 | NB III - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Budafoki LC(home) | 0-1 | NB III - Southwest |
| Jul 26, 2026 | PTE-PEAC(away) | 1-2 | NB III - Southwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Kaposvar win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sárbogárd win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2023 | Sárbogárd 0-1 Kaposvar | Magyar Kupa |
Last archived meeting: Sárbogárd vs Kaposvar on Aug 26, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Kaposvar score 2.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sárbogárd score 1.1 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaposvar | 2.5 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Sárbogárd | 1.1 | 2.6 | 0 | 8/14 | 12/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kaposvar sit 2nd in NB III - Southwest (9 points from 3 matches) and Sárbogárd sit 15th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kaposvar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | Sárbogárd | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kaposvar vs Sárbogárd?
- The Footlab model makes Kaposvar the favourite at 76%, against 15% for a draw and 9% for Sárbogárd.
- Where and when is Kaposvar vs Sárbogárd played?
- Kaposvar vs Sárbogárd is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Rákóczi Stadion, in the NB III - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.