Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Tokyo Verdy (1,869) and Nagoya Grampus (1,951).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tokyo Verdy have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Nagoya Grampus have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(away) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 2-4 | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tokyo Verdy win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Nagoya Grampus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | Tokyo Verdy 1-2 Nagoya Grampus | Emperor Cup |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 0-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Tokyo Verdy 2-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Sep 24, 2017 | Nagoya Grampus 4-1 Tokyo Verdy | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus on Aug 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Tokyo Verdy score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tokyo Verdy sit 17th in J1 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Nagoya Grampus sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus?
- The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Tokyo Verdy.
- Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus played?
- Tokyo Verdy vs Nagoya Grampus is played on November 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 21, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsJEF United Chiba
- Nov 21, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Nov 21, 2026Vissel KobevsMito Hollyhock
- Nov 21, 2026KashimavsShimizu S-pulse
- Nov 21, 2026Cerezo OsakavsFC Tokyo
- Nov 21, 2026Gamba OsakavsFagiano Okayama
- Nov 21, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsAvispa Fukuoka
- Nov 21, 2026Kyoto SangavsUrawa