Match

Kelty Hearts vs Montrose: prediction and stats

Challenge CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)New Central Park, Kelty

Kelty HeartsMontrose

The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Montrose. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?

A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Kelty Hearts (1,528) and Montrose (1,611).

Kelty Hearts win40 %
Draw22 %
Montrose win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kelty Hearts have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Montrose have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kelty Hearts
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Dumbarton(home)3-1League Two
Aug 15, 2026Elgin City(away)1-4League Two
Aug 11, 2026Motherwell U21(home)4-3Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026Stirling Albion(home)3-2League Two
Aug 1, 2026Forfar Athletic(away)0-1League Two
Montrose
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026East Kilbride(home)3-0League One
Aug 15, 2026Alloa Athletic(away)0-3League One
Aug 11, 2026Fraserburgh(home)2-0Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026Ross County(away)1-2League One
Aug 1, 2026Hamilton Academical(home)0-5League One

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kelty Hearts win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Montrose win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 11, 2026Kelty Hearts 3-1 MontroseLeague One
Mar 3, 2026Montrose 1-1 Kelty HeartsLeague One
Dec 6, 2025Kelty Hearts 0-3 MontroseLeague One
Aug 9, 2025Montrose 1-2 Kelty HeartsLeague One
Mar 8, 2025Kelty Hearts 0-0 MontroseLeague One
Jan 4, 2025Montrose 0-0 Kelty HeartsLeague One

Last archived meeting: Kelty Hearts vs Montrose on Apr 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Kelty Hearts score 1.2 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Montrose score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Kelty Hearts1.22.117/159/15
Montrose1.51.464/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Montrose.
Where and when is Kelty Hearts vs Montrose played?
Kelty Hearts vs Montrose is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at New Central Park, in the Challenge Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Kelty Hearts and Montrose

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