South Africa vs Kenya: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Peter Mokaba Stadium, Pietersburg
The Footlab model makes South Africa the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Kenya. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win South Africa vs Kenya?
South Africa starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,642 vs 1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, South Africa have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Kenya have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | South Korea(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Jamaica(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 29, 2026 | Nicaragua(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Lesotho(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Lesotho(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Grenada(away) | 3-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Senegal(away) | 0-8 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
South Africa score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kenya score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Kenya | 1.4 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
South Africa sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (14 points from 6 matches) and Kenya sit 3rd (6 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Africa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Kenya | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for South Africa vs Kenya?
- The Footlab model makes South Africa the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Kenya.
- Where and when is South Africa vs Kenya played?
- South Africa vs Kenya is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Peter Mokaba Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.