Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?

Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on August 30, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC)Mikuni World Stadium, Kitakyushu

Kitakyushu

Matsumoto Yamaga

The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Kitakyushu (1,619) and Matsumoto Yamaga (1,700).

Kitakyushu win27 %

Draw26 %

Matsumoto Yamaga win47 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kitakyushu have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kitakyushu
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Okinawa SV(home)	1-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Kamatamare Sanuki(home)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 18, 2026	Yokohama FC(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 7, 2026	Tochigi SC(away)	1-2	J2/J3 League

Matsumoto Yamaga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 16, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kochi United(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 25, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nara Club(home)	0-2	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kitakyushu win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 29, 2025	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Apr 26, 2025	Kitakyushu 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Jul 20, 2024	Kitakyushu 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
May 18, 2024	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Nov 5, 2023	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 Kitakyushu	J3 League
Apr 9, 2023	Kitakyushu 2-4 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League

Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kitakyushu on Nov 29, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Kitakyushu score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Kitakyushu	1.1	1.9	2	10/15	10/15
Matsumoto Yamaga	1.5	1.2	4	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kitakyushu sit 15th in J3 League (2 points from 2 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
15	Kitakyushu	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	3	0	2	1	4	5	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?: The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Kitakyushu.
Where and when is Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?: Kitakyushu vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on August 30, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at Mikuni World Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.