Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)EXBUD Arena, Kielce
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Korona Kielce. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (2,138 vs 1,943).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Korona Kielce have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jagiellonia(away) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Nieciecza(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Korona Kielce win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Korona Kielce 1-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Lech Poznan 1-1 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-0 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Korona Kielce 2-3 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| May 25, 2024 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Korona Kielce 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Korona Kielce score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce | 0.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Korona Kielce sit 11th in Ekstraklasa (5 points from 4 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Korona Kielce.
- Where and when is Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan played?
- Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan is played on April 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at EXBUD Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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