Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Legia Warszawa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Lech Poznan (2,141) and Legia Warszawa (2,059).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznan have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Legia Warszawa have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lech Poznan win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Legia Warszawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-0 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Warszawa | Super Cup |
| May 11, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Lech Poznan 5-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| May 12, 2024 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Legia Warszawa | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lech Poznan sit 4th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 3 matches) and Legia Warszawa sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Legia Warszawa.
- Where and when is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa played?
- Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa is played on April 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 17, 2027Gornik ZabrzevsWidzew Łódź
- Apr 17, 2027Wisla PlockvsJagiellonia
- Apr 17, 2027Zaglebie LubinvsMotor Lublin
- Apr 17, 2027Cracovia KrakowvsPiast Gliwice
- Apr 17, 2027GKS KatowicevsKorona Kielce
- Apr 17, 2027Raków CzęstochowavsWisla Krakow
- Apr 17, 2027Radomiak RadomvsPogon Szczecin
- Apr 17, 2027Wieczysta KrakówvsSlask Wroclaw