Kuressaare vs Paide: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Kuressaare linnastaadion, Kuressaare
The Footlab AI model makes Paide the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Kuressaare. The most likely score is 1-1. If Paide wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,834 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kuressaare vs Paide?
Paide starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,732 vs 1,534).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Kuressaare vs Paide
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Kuressaare
4-5-1- 9A. Švedovski
- 8D. Andreas
- 28R. Lukas
- 80R. Tarkmeel
- 5S. Sinilaid
- 7R. Talu
- 68Johann Vahermägi
- 21M. Lukka
- 36R. Piil
- 23R. Saar
- 31K. Nõmm
Paide
4-3-3- 77D. Luts
- 29D. Darboe
- 14M. Jobarteh
- 6Daniel Cabral
- 10M. Miller
- 28O. Hõim
- 3Victor Hugo dos Santos de Sá
- 2M. Lilander
- 4Pedro Andrade Drozina
- 27N. Baranov
- 12M. Meerits
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 09:29 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kuressaare have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Paide have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(home) | 0-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(home) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Saku Sporting(home) | 4-2 | Cup |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Laagri(away) | 0-0 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Trans Narva(home) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Tammeka(home) | 2-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Levadia Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nõmme United(away) | 3-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Vaprus(home) | 2-0 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kuressaare wins, 2 draws, 4 Paide wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide 1-0 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| May 31, 2026 | Paide 1-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Kuressaare 0-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Kuressaare 1-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Paide 5-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Kuressaare 1-2 Paide | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Kuressaare score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kuressaare sit 8th in Meistriliiga (35 points from 32 matches) and Paide sit 2nd (57 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Paide | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 39 | 57 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 51 | 35 |
A question about Kuressaare vs Paide?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kuressaare vs Paide?
- The Footlab AI model makes Paide the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Kuressaare.
- Where and when is Kuressaare vs Paide played?
- Kuressaare vs Paide is played on October 24, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Kuressaare linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.