Kuressaare vs Paide: prediction and stats
MeistriliigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Kuressaare linnastaadion, Kuressaare
The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Kuressaare. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kuressaare vs Paide?
Paide starts as the favourite with a 218-point Elo edge (1,706 vs 1,488).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kuressaare have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Paide have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tammeka(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flora Tallinn(away) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kristiine JK(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Laagri(home) | 3-2 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme United(home) | 4-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Trans Narva(away) | 1-1 | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kuressaare(home) | 1-0 | Meistriliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Kuressaare win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Paide win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Paide 1-0 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| May 31, 2026 | Paide 1-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Kuressaare 0-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Kuressaare 1-1 Paide | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Paide 5-1 Kuressaare | Meistriliiga |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Kuressaare 1-2 Paide | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Kuressaare score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Paide score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Paide | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kuressaare sit 9th in Meistriliiga (24 points from 24 matches) and Paide sit 4th (39 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Paide | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 30 | 39 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kuressaare vs Paide?
- The Footlab model makes Paide the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Kuressaare.
- Where and when is Kuressaare vs Paide played?
- Kuressaare vs Paide is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Kuressaare linnastaadion, in the Meistriliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.