La Virgen del Camino vs Arandina: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Los Dominicos, La Virgen Del Camino
The Footlab model makes La Virgen del Camino the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win La Virgen del Camino vs Arandina?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate La Virgen del Camino (1,712) and Arandina (1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, La Virgen del Camino have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Arandina have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Mojados(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 1, 2026 | Almazán(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Palencia CF(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Becerril Campos(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Arandina(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Becerril Campos(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 2, 2026 | Mirandés II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bembibre(home) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | UD Santa Marta(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | La Virgen del Camino(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 La Virgen del Camino win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Arandina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Arandina 3-1 La Virgen del Camino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | La Virgen del Camino 1-1 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Arandina 1-1 La Virgen del Camino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 16, 2024 | La Virgen del Camino 1-0 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Arandina 1-0 La Virgen del Camino | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 22, 2022 | La Virgen del Camino 1-2 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
La Virgen del Camino score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Virgen del Camino | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Arandina | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
La Virgen del Camino sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (44 points from 34 matches) and Arandina sit 12th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | La Virgen del Camino | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 37 | 44 |
| 12 | Arandina | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 32 | 46 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for La Virgen del Camino vs Arandina?
- The Footlab model makes La Virgen del Camino the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Arandina.
- Where and when is La Virgen del Camino vs Arandina played?
- La Virgen del Camino vs Arandina is played on March 21, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Los Dominicos, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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