Las Palmas vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Castellón. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Castellón?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Las Palmas (2,019) and Castellón (2,019).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Las Palmas have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Castellón have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEOM(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Hércules(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Las Palmas win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Castellón win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Las Palmas 1-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Castellón 1-0 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| Feb 27, 2021 | Castellón 4-0 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| Oct 21, 2020 | Las Palmas 2-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Dec 17, 2019 | Castellón 0-2 Las Palmas | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: Las Palmas vs Castellón on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Las Palmas score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Castellón | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Las Palmas sit 1st in Segunda División (6 points from 2 matches) and Castellón sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Palmas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Castellón | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Las Palmas vs Castellón?
- The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Castellón.
- Where and when is Las Palmas vs Castellón played?
- Las Palmas vs Castellón is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Gran Canaria, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.