Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium, Monrovia
The Footlab model makes Cape Verde Islands the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Liberia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands?
Cape Verde Islands starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,598 vs 1,442).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Liberia have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Cape Verde Islands have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sierra Leone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Libya(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Benin(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Guinea(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bermuda(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Liberia win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Cape Verde Islands win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2021 | Cape Verde Islands 1-0 Liberia | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 7, 2021 | Liberia 1-2 Cape Verde Islands | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
Last archived meeting: Cape Verde Islands vs Liberia on Oct 10, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Liberia score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cape Verde Islands score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberia | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 1.7 | 0.8 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Liberia sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Cape Verde Islands sit 4th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liberia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
| 4 | Cape Verde Islands | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands?
- The Footlab model makes Cape Verde Islands the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Liberia.
- Where and when is Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands played?
- Liberia vs Cape Verde Islands is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Samuel Kanyon Doe Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.